Muslims in marginal seats – Election 2015

The United Kingdom is holding its general election on the 8 June 2017. Irrespective of one’s view regarding participating in elections or party politics, it cannot be denied that the Muslim voice matters. The 2011 census reports there to be 2,706,066 Muslims which is 4.8% of the population. Much of this population is concentrated in certain areas, hence, the likely impact on determining a seat in higher. This becomes particularly pertinent when one considers the current government has a thin majority of only six seats although the working majority is around 17. There are 650 seats. One seat belongs to the speaker. So to win a majority, a party requires 325 seats.

The list below is based on the General Election Results 2015. A marginal seat here is a constituency with a majority that is lower than ten percent. The list identifies constituencies where the Muslims outnumber the majority required to win an election in an area. Pay particular attention to the marginal seats where the influence is particularly significant.

Please scroll left if you cannot see all six columns. Click here to download the full data file.

Constituencies with more Muslims than the Electoral majority

Note! The population data is at best an estimate. Religious affiliation is only collected in the census every 10 years; 2011 is the most current. The data provides a projection; one must factor in eligibility, age and migration for a better fit. The numbers stated are intended to provide a starting point. Furthermore, some details have changed since 2015 due to by-elections.

It is beyond the remit of this report to suggest what should Muslims do other than the fact they have the power to effect change for the betterment of Muslims and society at large.

Bar Northern Ireland, there are 120 constituencies where Muslims numbers are higher than the electoral majority with which a candidate won. 85 of these constituencies are held by Labour, 33 by Conservatives and two by others.

55 of the 120 are marginal seats in that the majority vote was less than  10 percent. 24 of these are held by the Conservatives and 29 by Labour.  If all else remains the same, this is significant as a swing of so many seats can lead to a hung parliament. The other two marginal seats are held by the SNP and the Liberal Democrats respectively.

A swing against the governing party in a marginal seat is not surprising. But, it can happen in safe seats also, as was seen in the wake of major events in the past.

It should be noted that the list focuses on the impact of Muslims unilaterally. However, in practice, even in small numbers, when working in partnership with others, Muslims can still make a difference. In any event, while staying within the boundaries set by Islam, if one has the ability do some good for the Muslims and one’s fellow neighbours irrespective of colour or creed, they should do so.

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Muhammad Saifur Rahman Nawhami
4 Ramadhan 1438
30 May 2017

Further Reading

British Election Study (2015). 2015 Constituency Results with Census and Candidate Data. Available at: http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/2015-bes-constituency-results-with-census-and-candidate-data/

Clements, B (2015). The 2015 General Election: Religious Affiliation and Party Vote Share Across Constituencies. Available at:
http://www.brin.ac.uk/2015/the-2015-general-election-religious-affiliation-and-party-vote-share-across-constituencies

Nawhami, M. S. R (2013). London – Muslim Population 2011. Nawhami Bulletin. Available at: https://nawhami.com/130102501

Citekey: 170530501