London Local Elections 2018 – The Muslim Vote

London is holding its local election on the 3 May 2018. The local council have a direct impact on the day to day lives of residents including Muslims. The council has oversight of education, libraries, social services, local planning, consumer protection, licensing, cemeteries and civil enforcement among others.

Irrespective of one’s view regarding participating in elections or party politics, it cannot be denied that the Muslim voice matters and their decision has an impact on those around them.

37.4% percent of the Muslim population of England and Wales live in London. As of 2011 Census, the population of London is 8,173,941 of which 1,012,823 declared themselves as Muslim. Hence, 12.4% of the city are adherents of Islam.

There are 606 wards within Greater London. 192 of the 606 (31.7%) have sufficient number of Muslims, exceeding the maximum required, to unilaterally select a candidate if they were to vote en masse. A further 32 ward have enough to meet the minimum vote required based on the 2014 local election results. Altogether, this is 37%.

In terms of concentration, the Muslims number technically is high enough to determine the council control of Brent (18/21), Enfield (11/21), Haringey (11/17), Newham (20/20), Redbridge (14/21), Tower Hamlets (19/19), Waltham Forest (14/19) and Westminster (13/19).

Below is a table of all the wards with the corresponding Muslims population. The highest winning vote from the 2014 local election for each ward is noted. The range column shows how far was the lowest winning vote. The difference column shows the difference between Muslim population versus the highest vote. The Muslim vote is particularly important if the difference is between -500 to 500 as they may hold the swing vote.

Type in search-box to find your ward or borough.

Note! Due to the boundary changes in 2014, the population for some wards are estimated based on the council prediction. These mainly affect Tower Hamlets, Hackney, and Kensington and Chelsea. There was an error in the 2011 census for Tower Hamlets by the ONS who underestimated the number of Muslims in Tower Hamlets. Please be aware the numbers are given as guidance and does not account for age or eligibility to vote. The prediction of most of the local councils is that the number has increased than those stated in the 2011 census.

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Muhammad Saifur Rahman Nawhami
16 Shaban 1439
3 May 2018

Read more

Greater London Authority (GLA). Borough Council Election Results 2014. (zip)

Office of National Statistics (ONS). 2011 Census: QS210EW Religion (detailed), wards in England and Wales. (zip)

Nawhami, M. S. R (2013). London – Muslim Population 2011. Nawhami Bulletin. Available at: https://nawhami.com/london-muslim-population-2011-130102501