Muslims in marginal seats – Election 2015

The United Kingdom is holding its general election on the 8 June 2017. Irrespective of one’s view regarding participating in elections or party politics, it cannot be denied that the Muslim voice matters. The 2011 census reports there to be 2,706,066 Muslims which is 4.8% of the population. Much of this population is concentrated in certain areas, hence, the likely impact on determining a seat in higher.This becomes particularly pertinent when one considers the current government has a thin majority of only six seats although the working majority is around 17. There are 650 seats. One seat belongs to the speaker. So to win a majority, a party requires 325 seats.

The list below is based on the General Election Results 2015. A marginal seat here is a constituency with a majority that is lower than ten percent. The list identifies constituencies where the Muslims outnumber the majority required to win an election in an area. Pay particular attention to the marginal seats where the influence is particularly significant.

Please scroll left if you cannot see all six columns. Click here to download the full data file.

Constituencies with more Muslims than the Electoral majority

ConstituencyPartyMajority %Majority #Muslim #Muslim +/-
GowerCON0.0627357330
Derby NorthCON0.094133143273
City of ChesterLAB0.1893888795
Croydon CentralCON0.3116568216656
Ealing Central and ActonLAB0.542741595915685
Ynys MônLAB0.6622925021
Vale of ClwydCON0.67237396159
Brentford and IsleworthLAB0.814651602515560
Bury NorthCON0.8437871356757
Morley and OutwoodCON0.87422822400
HalifaxLAB0.984281357413146
ThurrockCON1.0853628772341
Plymouth, Sutton and DevonportCON1.0952315641041
CambridgeLAB1.1659945823983
Ilford NorthLAB1.25891567415085
EastbourneCON1.397331479746
Newcastle-under-LymeLAB1.516501299649
Brighton, KemptownCON1.5269017031013
Bolton WestCON1.6580124561655
Wolverhampton South WestLAB1.9980157934992
Hampstead and KilburnLAB2.1111381389212754
Enfield NorthLAB2.3510861387912793
HoveLAB2.37123626821446
BedfordCON2.38109780086911
DewsburyLAB2.7114512032918878
Lancaster and FleetwoodLAB3.0312651557292
Carshalton and WallingtonLIB3.17151034131903
TwickenhamCON3.25201737481731
PeterboroughCON4.0919251581113886
Cardiff NorthCON4.1821372651514
Harrow WestLAB4.7422081390011692
Kingston and SurbitonCON4.78283464703636
Westminster NorthLAB519772643124454
Southampton, ItchenCON5.1823422777435
Walsall NorthLAB5.25193730431106
TootingLAB5.312842114748632
WakefieldLAB6.08261343391726
KeighleyCON6.223053127139660
ElthamLAB6.24269341111418
Stoke-on-Trent SouthLAB6.49253937341195
Birmingham, EdgbastonLAB6.55270667654059
Halesowen and Rowley RegisCON7.0330823861779
Coventry SouthLAB7.3318877834595
HendonCON7.537241722213498
Sutton and CheamCON7.8639214313392
BurnleyLAB8.16324485805336
Bristol EastLAB8.61398051061126
Newport WestLAB8.73510358979
Southampton, TestLAB8.73381054751665
Bermondsey and Old SouthwarkLAB8.734489108086319
Bristol WestLAB8.835673120796406
Colne ValleyCON9.47536876292261
Harrow EastCON9.714757134718714
Northampton SouthCON9.75379350541261
Bolton North EastLAB10.144377111176740
HyndburnLAB10.26440097135313
Enfield, SouthgateCON10.384753107746021
Dudley NorthLAB1141554276121
Finchley and Golders GreenCON11.155662113795717
Dagenham and RainhamLAB11.5750155947932
Batley and SpenLAB1260512025714206
PendleCON12.2754531557910126
Portsmouth SouthCON12.5152415475234
Stoke-on-Trent NorthLAB12.5148365528692
Cardiff CentralLAB12.89498177092728
Reading EastCON12.91652079181398
CrawleyCON13.44652676811155
Oldham East and SaddleworthLAB13.496002144718469
Luton SouthLAB13.5357112787422163
HammersmithLAB13.596518140057487
Walsall SouthLAB14.3660071854712540
Chipping BarnetCON14.4476568143487
Birmingham, ErdingtonLAB14.79512975992470
Leeds North EastLAB15.01725089321682
SloughLAB15.273363194224606
Nottingham SouthLAB15.966936110774141
Cardiff South and PenarthLAB15.97745387001247
Birmingham, YardleyLAB16.0365952199215397
Stoke-on-Trent CentralLAB16.6651795779600
Bradford EastLAB17.1170844205634972
Bradford SouthLAB17.156450125016051
HuddersfieldLAB18.157345130655720
Hornsey and Wood GreenLAB19.141105811486428
Glasgow CentralSNP19.497662117734111
Brent NorthLAB20.74108342243711603
KensingtonCON21.147361128125451
Derby SouthLAB21.638828154616633
Luton NorthLAB22.3395042214212638
Feltham and HestonLAB23.211463196418178
Ealing NorthLAB25.4112326188026476
Cities of London and WestminsterCON26.739671140514380
Bolton South EastLAB26.8210928189127984
RochdaleLAB27.39124422542912987
Bradford WestLAB27.85114205887247452
BlackburnLAB29127603888726127
Holborn and St PancrasLAB31.0417048191522104
Poplar and LimehouseLAB33.16169244328726363
Nottingham EastLAB33.7811894131021208
Oldham West and RoytonLAB34.17147382522010482
Sheffield, Brightside and HillsboroughLAB34.4713807158392032
Hayes and HarlingtonLAB34.8515700183192619
BarkingLAB35.4815272203825110
Birmingham, Perry BarrLAB35.9414828242689440
PrestonLAB36.0512067132321165
Leyton and WansteadLAB36.6514919235828663
EdmontonLAB37.3154192748812069
Ilford SouthLAB38.1197774575725980
Leicester EastLAB38.1818352217053353
Leicester SouthLAB38.84178653315215287
Brent CentralLAB41.7819649291989549
Birmingham, Hall GreenLAB42.12198185399034172
Blackley and BroughtonLAB45.4716874185381664
Bethnal Green and BowLAB45.95243174440920092
West HamLAB53.01279864244814462
TottenhamLAB55.3723564246441080
WalthamstowLAB55.523195282075012
Birmingham, Hodge HillLAB56.93233626341740055
Manchester, GortonLAB57.3124079320107931
Birmingham, LadywoodLAB60.89218684462622758
East HamLAB65.5342525600821756

Note! The population data is at best an estimate. Religious affiliation is only collected in the census every 10 years; 2011 is the most current. The data provides a projection; one must factor in eligibility, age and migration for a better fit. The numbers stated are intended to provide a starting point. Furthermore, some details have changed since 2015 due to by-elections.

It is beyond the remit of this report to suggest what should Muslims do other than the fact they have the power to effect change for the betterment of Muslims and society at large.

Bar Northern Ireland, there are 120 constituencies where Muslims numbers are higher than the electoral majority with which a candidate won. 85 of these constituencies are held by Labour, 33 by Conservatives and two by others.

55 of the 120 are marginal seats in that the majority vote was less than  10 percent. 24 of these are held by the Conservatives and 29 by Labour.  If all else remains the same, this is significant as a swing of so many seats can lead to a hung parliament. The other two marginal seats are held by the SNP and the Liberal Democrats respectively.

A swing against the governing party in a marginal seat is not surprising. But, it can happen in safe seats also, as was seen in the wake of major events in the past.

It should be noted that the list focuses on the impact of Muslims unilaterally. However, in practice, even in small numbers, when working in partnership with others, Muslims can still make a difference. In any event, while staying within the boundaries set by Islam, if one has the ability do some good for the Muslims and one’s fellow neighbours irrespective of colour or creed, they should do so.

———

Muhammad Saifur Rahman Nawhami
4 Ramadhan 1438
30 May 2017

Further Reading

British Election Study (2015). 2015 Constituency Results with Census and Candidate Data. Available at: http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/2015-bes-constituency-results-with-census-and-candidate-data/

Clements, B (2015). The 2015 General Election: Religious Affiliation and Party Vote Share Across Constituencies. Available at:
http://www.brin.ac.uk/2015/the-2015-general-election-religious-affiliation-and-party-vote-share-across-constituencies

Nawhami, M. S. R (2013). London – Muslim Population 2011. Nawhami Bulletin. Available at: http://nawhami.com/130102501

 

Citekey: 170530501